Oscar 2011 winners prediction

 

As you may know, I enjoy good movies and despise bad ones. Needless to say, i’m psyched up with the coming Oscar. I always try to watch as many nominated movies as possible before the Oscar night to predict winners. Now it’s the time to sum it up:

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Holy cow this year they expand the nominees list for Best Picture to 10. Does that make it harder to guess ? Let’s see:

  • 127 Hours: So so, I’m unimpressed. And Slumdog Millionaire took the prize in 2009. No.
  • Black Swan: I watched Aronofsky’s The Fountain and Requiem for a Dream but frankly I didn’t understand much. The same for Black Swan. The Wrestler is outstanding though, I rooted for Mickey Rourke in 2009
  • The Fighter: Good film, however not enough for Academy Award
  • Inception: My favorite.
  • The Kids are All Right: indie films often don’t have a chance (with the exception of Crash maybe?)
  • The King’s Speech: very good, has great potential to get Oscar
  • The Social Network: although i’m a fan of David Fincher, IMO this one is overrated
  • Toy Story 3: no way
  • True Grit: haven’t seen this, but the Coen brothers have got Best Picture recently, so chance for True Grit is quite low
  • Winter’s Bone: haven’t seen this

After all, the ones with biggest chance would be (after this sequence): Black Swan, The King’s Speech and Inception. I pick Inception.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
This one is easy: Colin Firth.

  • Javier Bardem for Biutiful
  • Jeff Bridges for True Grit
  • Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network
  • Colin Firth for The King’s Speech
  • James Franco for 127 Hours

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
I haven’t seen 3 in this list. Will update later.

  • Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
  • Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
  • Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone
  • Natalie Portman for Black Swan
  • Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

Best Achievement in Directing
Aronofsky or Tom Hooper.

  • Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
  • Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit
  • David Fincher for The Social Network
  • Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
  • David O. Russell for The Fighter

Best supporting actor would be Geoffrey Rush or Christian Bale. Both had excellent performance. I pick Geoffrey Rush.

Best supporting actress would be Hailee Steinfeld. I really like Amy Adam in The Fighter though.

Update 1 (26 Feb): Betting market’s favorites:

The odd on The King’s Speech is 1.27 (lower odd implies that a lof of money has been waged on this film). The Social Network is second with an odd of 5.70. A distant third is, suprisingly, True Grit (46).

The odd on Leading Actor is astronomically low: if you place 1€ on Colin Firth and he wins, then you win a whopping 5 cent. The same with Natalie Portan at an odd of 1.11.

In Supporting Actor category Christian Bale is on top with 1.16, while Geoffrey Rush plays catch up at 7.60. Melissa Leo with her role as a manipulating mother in The Fighter leads the group of supporting actress nominees (1.70). My precition in this category, Hailee Steinfeld, is not far behind at an odd of 4.00.

The market really favors The Social Network when David Fincher competes with Tom Hooper for Best Director (1.7 and 2.8, respectively). I don’t expect The Social Network gets that much support.

Note: The odds in this post are approximately taken from Betfair and William Hill. They are subjected to change when gamblers change their opinion.

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